The
issues

“The pattern of recurring volatility, panics, manias and fears we have seen in recent years is likely to persist. The drivers will be:

• Financial bubbles, which happen when groups of assets rise to insane price levels within fairly short spans of months or years - and then crash
• Financial crashes: Disorderly mass liquidations of assets, virtually always following bubbles
• Scares: Episodes where initial public concern over existing or potential problems evolves into a media frenzies and often a series of policy initiatives that are out of any proportion to the actual problem.

I believe that between 2010 and 2050 there will probably be:

• 12-18 financial bubbles and crashes
• 12-18 general scares
• 1-3 global major property meltdowns, each followed by banking crises
• 3-5 capital spending collapses
• 8-10 inventory cycles.

So the press should have enough to write about and investors enough to think about.”

Lars Tvede