Supertrends: Since we spoke last time, you have launched a natural hydrogen index, named NatH2 Index. Could you explain what it is about?    

Morten Stahl: I'd be happy to. One of the main reasons for creating the index and the accompanying website was to be able to discuss natural hydrogen investing in more detail—because what I normally do in my line of work is invest in private companies, which involves a lot of secretive deal-making and deal sourcing that I can't really discuss. However, companies that are publicly traded put out information streams and press releases all the time, so there's a lot of good information to be discussed.    

Until recently, there weren't many companies working with natural hydrogen. But since summer last year (2024), a lot of new companies have moved into the industry. Right now, there's 25 companies offering investors the opportunity to invest in publicly traded stocks, providing some kind of exposure to natural hydrogen.    

Of these 25, we put ten of them into what we call the natural hydrogen index, which is an equally based index that tracks the ten companies that offer the highest exposure towards natural hydrogen. A few of these companies, like Hytera and Gold Hydrogen, have been there since the beginning of this new industry. They have—what you could call—an exposure score of 100%.   

Then there are companies that do natural hydrogen but maybe also some mining, oil, and gas exploration. So, you have different exposure rates, and this won't be visible in the index itself. Those are numbers that we'll get back to, but the website nath2investing tracks all 25 companies and shows any interested potential investors what kind of collateral exposure one gets.   

Supertrends: What makes this index so unique?    

Morten Stahl: The index offers a quick way to check how the natural hydrogen industry is progressing. It's the best way to track specific news related to the industry; if someone announces a significant new discovery of natural hydrogen, you'll likely see it in the index. Or, for example, when one of the world's biggest mining companies made an investment into one of the companies working with natural hydrogen, we saw an increase in the index. We also saw an increase primarily in companies that work in the same area as the company that got the investment.   

Supertrends: What’s your main goal with this index? What drove you to create it?   

Morten Stahl: As I mentioned earlier, I like to talk about investing in natural hydrogen. Publicly traded companies have a lot of data that I can openly discuss, allowing my team and me to show our thinking. At the same time, we’re trying to provide easily accessible information to investors who don't have the capital or who don’t want to invest in a company like mine or in our venture fund and other similar structures. They perhaps just want a little bit of exposure by buying exchange-traded stocks as they used to from their brokerage app. This will hopefully also support a healthy publicly traded market for these kinds of stocks.   

Supertrends: Is this index entirely focused on natural hydrogen? Or does it take into account other types?  

Morten Stahl: It doesn't take into account other types of hydrogen. I think natural hydrogen is a completely different beast. It doesn't have any of the same input costs as green, blue, and gray, and it has lower carbon intensity, meaning a lower cost because there's no input cost. So, this is something that has to be looked at separately.    

I think in the index right now, we have four pure-play companies that only do natural hydrogen with a little bit of helium, which is an accompanying gas that might exist in the subsurface. Then there are six companies that also do mining, oil, and gas. Further down outside the index, there is a company that also does a little bit of green hydrogen, but that's accidental as we're focusing on natural hydrogen, of course.   

Supertrends: In a previous interview, you mentioned that the share of natural hydrogen in the global hydrogen market is zero. How can this be a publicly traded market if there's not a real market output?    

Morten Stahl: This is because it's exploration companies. Any way you look at it, this is early-stage investing. Investors are investing in a variety of exploration companies. None of them have natural hydrogen production yet.   

Investing early in a company like this is a bet. It's a calculated risk on whether there will be fine hydrogen or not. In my opinion, your risk-reward is great, because these are very low-valued companies, both the publicly traded and the private ones. As in any exploration investment, there are tons of oil, gas, and mining companies out there that don't produce anything, so you could say it's a normal way of offering an attractive risk-reward in exploration investments.   

Supertrends:  Since the index was launched, it has lost around $1,000. What’s your prediction for 2025? Do you foresee meaningful growth?  

Morten Stahl: There are many answers to this question. The index is built on the companies that offer the highest exposure. It's not depending on any kind of qualitative metrics. You know, I haven't said I like this company over this company. It's based on the companies offering the most exposure, so they kind of move along with the industry, but it's generally just as expected.    

It's very volatile, and these are small companies in exploration. So, even small movements of blocks of shares can move the stock price up and down. The $1,000 drop equates to less than 10% down.  

Going forward in 2025, I think what will really move the needle here is if a commercial discovery is announced. This is something that is continuously rumored to have already happened in the US, but it's just a rumor. Don't invest based on rumors—what we want here is for investors to be prepared if there is any good news. This gives you an overview of which companies you could then invest in.   

Supertrends:  You mentioned the index is based on 10 companies, but on your website, you track 25. Could you give us more information on these companies?     

Morten Stahl: The 100% focused companies keep growing. You could say in the index there are two companies that still have some mining assets, but it's obvious from their communication that's not their focus anymore. So that's a question of how you define this.    

Then outside the index, you have two companies that are in the process of taking over substantial natural hydrogen activities. Meaning, they would likely then be put into the index and be pushed out to others with less exposure.    

But except for one or two companies, these are all exploration companies, meaning what they do besides natural hydrogen is either mining or mining exploration, or oil and gas exploration. There is one company that does oil and gas production, meaning it's a rare case of a natural hydrogen company that has natural hydrogen exposure and actually makes money.   

It should be easy to deduce which companies we're talking about when looking through the website. The front page shows you all the companies and where they operate. And that's relevant. Back to what I said earlier, we saw when there was good news or an investment into a US-focused company it lifts all boats with US operations. It’s likely to be expected that if you were to see a commercial discovery in the US, the companies working in the US will probably see the biggest reaction in price.    

We're working on building a map, so it's easy to show where the company is operating. But right now, you'd have to read a bit and do some of your own research on the website locally.   

Supertrends:  How solid is the natural hydrogen publicly traded market?    

Morten Stahl: There are definitely companies moving into this industry—both private and public—that are doing it as a kind of Hail Mary to save their share price. As always, investors should do their work to figure out which companies are legit. It would be too opinionated for me to point this out, but I don't think this industry is worse off than any other industry.   

Supertrends:  What feedback have you received after launching this index?    

Morten Stahl: It is not our focus to invest in publicly traded companies, so we have been surprised by investors big and small approaching us asking, “How can I invest in this?” because when they hear the word “index,” they think it's an index fund—which is very popular. But this is actually only a raw index, there is no investment fund tracking it. So sadly, you'll probably have to wait quite some time before someone turns it into an index fund to invest in because that will require that the market is bigger.  

Supertrends:  Has there been any major technical advancement since we last talked?  

Morten Stahl: I would say we're really waiting for the commercial discovery. There's a lot of research being done, and lately, different papers have come out estimating and calculating thoroughly the expected cost, which is, of course, hugely important if you want this to mean something. The whole reason to do this is that it could be cheap. We have compiled some of these articles on the Nath2investing website—there's potential. For example, Stanford University just came out with an article estimating below $1.00 per kilo of hydrogen produced, which is below the "Holy Grail" number of $1.00 per kilo.  

Supertrends:  Could you compare the price per kilo with other types of hydrogen?   

Morten Stahl: I think it will be somewhat elastic, but generally, it is assumed that green hydrogen would have a production cost of around $5 per kilo, though in some places it will be even higher. But this is just way too high compared to the energy density of the hydrogen. People would be paying way too much at $5 per kilo. The commercial and very polluting hydrogen produced today for ammonia probably has a cost of $1–2 per kilo. And if you have sequestered carbon from this operation—turning what's called grey hydrogen into blue—you will be looking at $4–5 per kilo, but it will differ from place to place.  

With blue hydrogen, geology actually means a lot because you need somewhere to put the carbon you take out from the production process of the hydrogen. It quickly gets very complex when you have to produce something that you could just extract.  

Supertrends:  With you being Danish, this question is a must— does Greenland have natural hydrogen resources? How is the current interest from Trump in maybe adding the island to the US how could this affect the natural hydrogen industry?  

Morten Stahl: I would say it will have no effect on the natural hydrogen industry. Greenland has the potential—it seems to have the right kind of subsurface rocks to be able to produce natural hydrogen. But so do many areas in the US and Alaska. So I don't think that's the reason for President-elect Trump to be interested in Greenland.  

I think the new administration is neither negative nor positive for the natural hydrogen industry, as it's widely expected that hydrogen, in general, would have bipartisan backing in the US. And this is actually something where you'll be needing oil and gas skills to extract this clean energy. We are luckily in the sweet spot when it comes to new energy types in the US, where it could be expected that wind, especially offshore wind, might find itself facing some challenges if you listen to what Trump and his team say.  

Supertrends:  To close up this second interview, what would be your three best pieces of advice for someone who is thinking about investing in natural hydrogen?  

Morten Stahl: Start out carefully—don't invest too much—this is still a new industry. Do some research and spread out your investments because this is risky and not every company will find natural hydrogen. So, spreading out your investment, doing research, and starting with a small amount would be my three pieces of advice.